Is it the best of times? Or is it the worst of times?
New Delhi and Cape Town are about 9,000 kilometres apart, but a similar symphony is at play in both cities.
Two large emerging markets, both part of the BRICS bloc, have swung towards coalition politics because of biting inflation and rising inequality, which hurt the poor the most.
These election results carry a lesson for Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden waiting for their turn to be on the ballot.
Are we entering the age of wisdom or foolishness?
The people of South Africa and India have tilted in favour of populists who promised to fix the problems with policies that stock markets don't classify as reforms. Worse, many see it as a possible step back on the growth path.
ALSO READ: India's election results make a $359 billion dent on listed stocks
However, the people's mandate is clear: growth and development must trickle down faster, and prices of everyday items can't spiral out of control too frequently.
The demands may seem intuitive, but successive governments across many countries have failed to deliver the goods lower down the social pyramid in at least the last decade and a half.
Early 2010s: Inflation starts a spring of hope in Africa and a winter of despair in India
When India voted a Hindu Nationalist to the Prime Minister's office in 2014, Brexit wasn't on the list of top risks, and almost no one outside the US had imagined Donald Trump as President.
The chain of events started long before the actual surprise/shock. The global financial crisis of 2008 had led to wanton printing of money in developed markets, which fuelled an incredible surge in food and oil prices.
Unhinged inflation almost always leads to political shifts.
The public anger of the time showed up in the Arab Spring in North Africa, the anti-corruption movement and regime change in India, debt defaults in Europe, international damnation of bankers embodied by the Occupy Wall Street movement, and a revolution in Ukraine triggering Russia's annexation of Crimea, to name just a few examples.
'The period was so far like the present period.'
A similar wave of political change is likely underway worldwide. While history doesn't start at any one point, the economic disruption caused by the pandemic triggered the latest wave of global inflation.
Again, we have wars, global supply disruptions, and stubborn inflation that refuses to die down.
For good or for evil? For Inflation
Ramaphosa has already paid the price for it. So did Australia's Scott Morrison in 2022 when Anthony Albanese led the Labour Party, which snatched a majority for the first time since 2007.
Nine months after inflation hit a historic 100%, Argentina voted for a new President who talks to dead dogs.
With inflation at a scorching 75%, Turkey has already experienced a political shock. On April 1, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party fell short of a win by a million votes in the election for the Mayor of Istanbul.
Inflation in Turkey has remained over 30% every month since January 2022.
We already saw a failed coup in Myanmar in 2021. The Aung Sang Suu Kyi government survived, but it is also quickly running out of cash, according to reports.
Many would argue that even Putin and Xi Jinping have been reduced from charismatic leaders to just despots in charge of decaying economies.
British conservative Rishi Sunak will most likely vacate 10 Downing Street about a month from now, making way for the first Labour Party government since 2010.
And then, there's a big one due in the US in a few months.
Inflation in India has been much milder compared to the countries cited above, but if stuff remains unaffordable for a long time, whether it's because of price rise, stagnant wages, or unemployment, the voter is bound to ask questions.
That Modi still seems set for a historic third term in a row as India's Prime Minister is testimony to the administration, and the central bank's efforts to contain price rise as much as they could.
Winds of change are blowing again.
Conservatives have blamed globalisation for economic ills in their respective countries for a little over a decade now with immense political success.
That narrative may be losing currency because protectionism by any name has yet to deliver a solution.
ALSO READ: How to (and not to) protect domestic industry
Poorer people in many countries are asking for a new idea to pause this cycle of inequity and inflation that makes their lives more miserable than the rich can imagine.
World leaders ignoring rural distress, unemployment, and rising inequalities will be the cause for, and victims of, regime changes.
A meeting of the G20 leaders five years from now may look very different from what it does now unless some of them imbue the changing spirit of their times.
New Delhi and Cape Town are about 9,000 kilometres apart, but a similar symphony is at play in both cities.
Two large emerging markets, both part of the BRICS bloc, have swung towards coalition politics because of biting inflation and rising inequality, which hurt the poor the most.
These election results carry a lesson for Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden waiting for their turn to be on the ballot.
Are we entering the age of wisdom or foolishness?
The people of South Africa and India have tilted in favour of populists who promised to fix the problems with policies that stock markets don't classify as reforms. Worse, many see it as a possible step back on the growth path.
ALSO READ: India's election results make a $359 billion dent on listed stocks
However, the people's mandate is clear: growth and development must trickle down faster, and prices of everyday items can't spiral out of control too frequently.
The demands may seem intuitive, but successive governments across many countries have failed to deliver the goods lower down the social pyramid in at least the last decade and a half.
Early 2010s: Inflation starts a spring of hope in Africa and a winter of despair in India
When India voted a Hindu Nationalist to the Prime Minister's office in 2014, Brexit wasn't on the list of top risks, and almost no one outside the US had imagined Donald Trump as President.
The chain of events started long before the actual surprise/shock. The global financial crisis of 2008 had led to wanton printing of money in developed markets, which fuelled an incredible surge in food and oil prices.
Unhinged inflation almost always leads to political shifts.
The public anger of the time showed up in the Arab Spring in North Africa, the anti-corruption movement and regime change in India, debt defaults in Europe, international damnation of bankers embodied by the Occupy Wall Street movement, and a revolution in Ukraine triggering Russia's annexation of Crimea, to name just a few examples.
FILE PHOTO: REUTERS/Suhaib Salem - LIBYA, 2011
'The period was so far like the present period.'
A similar wave of political change is likely underway worldwide. While history doesn't start at any one point, the economic disruption caused by the pandemic triggered the latest wave of global inflation.
Again, we have wars, global supply disruptions, and stubborn inflation that refuses to die down.
For good or for evil? For Inflation
Ramaphosa has already paid the price for it. So did Australia's Scott Morrison in 2022 when Anthony Albanese led the Labour Party, which snatched a majority for the first time since 2007.
Nine months after inflation hit a historic 100%, Argentina voted for a new President who talks to dead dogs.
With inflation at a scorching 75%, Turkey has already experienced a political shock. On April 1, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party fell short of a win by a million votes in the election for the Mayor of Istanbul.
Inflation in Turkey has remained over 30% every month since January 2022.
We already saw a failed coup in Myanmar in 2021. The Aung Sang Suu Kyi government survived, but it is also quickly running out of cash, according to reports.
Many would argue that even Putin and Xi Jinping have been reduced from charismatic leaders to just despots in charge of decaying economies.
British conservative Rishi Sunak will most likely vacate 10 Downing Street about a month from now, making way for the first Labour Party government since 2010.
And then, there's a big one due in the US in a few months.
Inflation in India has been much milder compared to the countries cited above, but if stuff remains unaffordable for a long time, whether it's because of price rise, stagnant wages, or unemployment, the voter is bound to ask questions.
That Modi still seems set for a historic third term in a row as India's Prime Minister is testimony to the administration, and the central bank's efforts to contain price rise as much as they could.
Winds of change are blowing again.
Conservatives have blamed globalisation for economic ills in their respective countries for a little over a decade now with immense political success.
That narrative may be losing currency because protectionism by any name has yet to deliver a solution.
ALSO READ: How to (and not to) protect domestic industry
Poorer people in many countries are asking for a new idea to pause this cycle of inequity and inflation that makes their lives more miserable than the rich can imagine.
World leaders ignoring rural distress, unemployment, and rising inequalities will be the cause for, and victims of, regime changes.
A meeting of the G20 leaders five years from now may look very different from what it does now unless some of them imbue the changing spirit of their times.
First Published: Jun 5, 2024 3:53 PM IST
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