In less than 24 hours from now, exit poll predictions will be released by multiple organisations and agencies after the completion of the seventh phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections on Saturday, June 1.
Voting for the final phase will take place from 7 am on Saturday (June 1) and will go on till 6 pm, while the exit polls are allowed to be aired from 6.30 pm onwards.
Before the release of the exit polls, poll strategist Prashant Kishor and psephologist Yogendra Yadav have aired their divergent predictions for the 2024 general elections, adding to the anticipation surrounding the electoral outcome on June 4.
Here's a look at what the two of them have to say about the ongoing 2024 polls which is seeing a direct contest between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Opposition's I.N.D.I.A. bloc, which includes Congress, TMC, also known as AITC, AAP, DMK, Samajwadi Party, and others.
Prashant Kishor
Prashant Kishor has stuck to his poll forecast of Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA winning a comfortable majority in the 2024 elections.
In a recent interview with The Print, the poll strategist noted that he is hoping for the BJP to get a similar number of seats that it bagged in the 2019 elections or it might even go on to perform better.
"In my assessment, in western and northern India, I do not see the BJP taking a material hit in terms of seats," he said.
The saffron party registered a win of 303 seats in the 2019 polls.
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While he does not foresee the BJP losing major seats in north and western areas, Kishor noted that the saffron party this time has got "adequate cover" from eastern and southern areas as well.
"I can see BJP increasing their seat and total vote share from the east and south India. So, I have said that the BJP is likely to get a similar number of seats if there is no material damage from west and north India," noted Kishor, who has previously worked as a strategist for several political parties, including BJP, Congress and Trinamool Congress.
Yogendra Yadav
Unlike Prashant Kishore, Yogendra Yadav has predicted a different outcome for the 2024 elections.
Yadav believes that the BJP might not be able to cross the 272 mark — required for a majority in the Lower House of Parliament — all alone. The saffron party, he predicts, will get around 250 seats, with chances of it even falling below 230. The party's other NDA allies are likely to secure 35-45 seats.
Although this will give the NDA enough seats to form a government, it will be significantly short of the 400-seat target set by the BJP, he added.
On the other hand, Yadav has predicted a resurgence for the Congress, which he thinks may win 85-100 seats — a significant increase from the 52 seats the grand old party won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Besides that, he expects the other I.N.D.I.A. bloc allies to bag 120-135 seats, taking their total tally to 205-235 seats.
"Fascinating: @_YogendraYadav has revised his earlier estimates and now says that the BJP will fall short of 272," Congress MP Shashi Tharoor wrote on social media site X.
Fascinating: @_YogendraYadav has revised his earlier estimates and now says that the BJP will definitely fall short of 272. He tells Karan Thapar that the BJP could go down to 250, but if the undercurrent is strong it could even fall further to 230. Mr. Yadav says he expects the…
— Shashi Tharoor (@ShashiTharoor) May 30, 2024
Looking at the poll predictions by both Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Kishor, it looks like the two are expecting the BJP's return to power, with Prime Minister Modi securing a third consecutive term at the Centre.
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However, the difference between their analysis lies in the exact number of seats with which the saffron party is expected to return to power.
The final results will be announced on June 4.
