Voters in Tamil Nadu are largely satisfied with the performance of the chief minister, the state government, and the central government, according to an opinion poll conducted by News18.
Tamil Nadu contributes 39 legislators to the 543-strong Lok Sabha, making it a crucial state. The ruling DMK (Dravida Munethra Kazhagam) currently holds 38 seats, with the opposition AIDMK (All India Dravida Munethra Kazhagam) holding the lone other.
Around 58% of the total 8,887 poll respondents from Tamil Nadu said they are "very satisfied" to "somewhat satisfied" with CM MK Stalin, while 60% are happy with the state government.
Almost 66% are "somewhat to very satisfied" with the performance of the NDA government at the Centre and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
While 59% of the respondents said they are "very to somewhat satisfied" with the sitting MP of their constituency, around 80% of BJP voters surveyed (2,455) are open to voting for any BJP MP only because of Modi.
Central schemes
On the question of awareness about various central government schemes, the poll findings were as follows: about 18% were aware of PM Kisan Samman Nidhi; for other schemes the awareness level was better-- PM Awas Yojana (Housing scheme, 31%), Har Ghar Jal (Jal Jeevan Mission, 25%), Ujjwala Yojana (Gas cylinder, 49%), Jan Dhan Yojana (Bank accounts, 32%), and Ayushman Bharat (Healthcare, 23%). About 19% of the respondents were unaware of any of these schemes.
Key issues
Employment topped the list of issues for voters, with 61% calling it a deciding factor for their vote. Other factors that emerged as key issues were as follows: inflation (46%), law and order (47%), corruption (35%), and infrastructure and development (20%). Around 22% of the respondents said they would vote based on the religion of the candidate.
2019 Results
In the 2019 results, DMK's coalition swept the Lok Sabha polls riding on a wave of anti-incumbency and general dissatisfaction with the DMK-led government, completely reversing its fortunes from five years previously. DMK won 24 seats while its coalition partners, including the Congress, won 14. The state has sent only one BJP member to Lok Sabha ever, P Radhakrishnan, in 2014. He lost the election in 2019.
2014 results
In the Lok Sabha Elections, AIADMK was the dominant force, bagging 37 seats on its own merit. while DMK and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) won a seat each.
The 2009 election was fought on more even terms, with DMK bagging 18 seats, AIADMK 9, and Congress 8. The Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) bagged one seat each.
Politics in Tamil Nadu
Since 1952, Tamil Nadu has had 12 full-time chief ministers, with power see-sawing between the two major regional parties — DMK (Dravida Munethra Kazhagam) and AIADMK (All India Ann Dravida Munethra Kazhagam). Seven chief ministers, including one in an acting capacity, belonged to DMK, while AIADMK accounted for the rest.
AIADMK was founded by actor-turned-politician and former chief minister MG Ramachandran — it was a splinter of the DMK after a fissure developed between MGR and M Karunanidhi, who first became CM on February 10, 1969.
After MGR died in 1987, the mantle of party supremo went to his protege J Jayalalithaa, who would occupy the CM's state five times, with her first term commencing on 24 June 1991.
It is important to note that since Karunanidhi became CM for the second time in June 1989, until his passing in 2018, elections in Tamil Nadu came down to a choice between himself and Jayalalithaa, with each occupying the chair in successive terms, with the odd interruption of President's Rule.
While a DMK chief minister always meant Karunanidhi, only twice did AIADMK have a chief minister other than Jayalalithaa —O Paneerselvam (OPS), who took the oath of office in September 2001 when Jayalalithaa was barred from holding office by the Supreme Court over corrupto=ion allegations, and then again in May 2014 when she was convicted in a disproportionate assets case. Regardless, there was no question about who truly ran the government during these brief stints.
End of status quo
Tamil Nadu saw its first period of uncertainty when Jayalalithaa passed away on December 5, 2016, paving the way for a third, short-lived turn by OPS as chief minister. Around this time, AIADMK split into two factions — one led by OPS and the other by Edappadi K Palaniswani (EPS).
Karunanidhi too was ailing, with his son MK Stalin handling al party-related matters. Karunanidhi passed away in 2018.
The EPS faction won the day and expelled OPS from the party in 2022. EPS became the seventh chief minister of Tamil Nadu after joining the National Democratic Alliance and completed four years in office before DMK defeated them in the assembly elections, with the incumbent, Stalin taking the oath of office.
The 2019 Lok Sabha Elections
This marked the turning point for DMK. The elections for Tamil Nadu’s 39 Lok Sabha seats were held on April 18, 2019, during the second phase The alliance led by DMK swept 38 of the 39 seats.
Factors that led to DMK's victory
The DMK, under the leadership of Stalin, spearheaded the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA). This alliance included parties like the Indian National Congress (INC), Communist Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India, and others.
Meanwhile, the ruling AIADMK faced challenges due to factors such as demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation, which impacted the state’s economy. Many perceived the AIADMK-led state government as being influenced by the central government.
The DMK effectively capitalised on these grievances, positioning itself as a viable alternative. The absence of towering leaders like Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa further contributed to the political flux.
Tamil Nadu contributes 39 legislators to the 543-strong Lok Sabha, making it a crucial state. The ruling DMK (Dravida Munethra Kazhagam) currently holds 38 seats, with the opposition AIDMK (All India Dravida Munethra Kazhagam) holding the lone other.
Around 58% of the total 8,887 poll respondents from Tamil Nadu said they are "very satisfied" to "somewhat satisfied" with CM MK Stalin, while 60% are happy with the state government.
Almost 66% are "somewhat to very satisfied" with the performance of the NDA government at the Centre and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
While 59% of the respondents said they are "very to somewhat satisfied" with the sitting MP of their constituency, around 80% of BJP voters surveyed (2,455) are open to voting for any BJP MP only because of Modi.
Central schemes
On the question of awareness about various central government schemes, the poll findings were as follows: about 18% were aware of PM Kisan Samman Nidhi; for other schemes the awareness level was better-- PM Awas Yojana (Housing scheme, 31%), Har Ghar Jal (Jal Jeevan Mission, 25%), Ujjwala Yojana (Gas cylinder, 49%), Jan Dhan Yojana (Bank accounts, 32%), and Ayushman Bharat (Healthcare, 23%). About 19% of the respondents were unaware of any of these schemes.
Key issues
Employment topped the list of issues for voters, with 61% calling it a deciding factor for their vote. Other factors that emerged as key issues were as follows: inflation (46%), law and order (47%), corruption (35%), and infrastructure and development (20%). Around 22% of the respondents said they would vote based on the religion of the candidate.
2019 Results
In the 2019 results, DMK's coalition swept the Lok Sabha polls riding on a wave of anti-incumbency and general dissatisfaction with the DMK-led government, completely reversing its fortunes from five years previously. DMK won 24 seats while its coalition partners, including the Congress, won 14. The state has sent only one BJP member to Lok Sabha ever, P Radhakrishnan, in 2014. He lost the election in 2019.
2014 results
In the Lok Sabha Elections, AIADMK was the dominant force, bagging 37 seats on its own merit. while DMK and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) won a seat each.
2009 results
The 2009 election was fought on more even terms, with DMK bagging 18 seats, AIADMK 9, and Congress 8. The Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) bagged one seat each.
Politics in Tamil Nadu
Since 1952, Tamil Nadu has had 12 full-time chief ministers, with power see-sawing between the two major regional parties — DMK (Dravida Munethra Kazhagam) and AIADMK (All India Ann Dravida Munethra Kazhagam). Seven chief ministers, including one in an acting capacity, belonged to DMK, while AIADMK accounted for the rest.
AIADMK was founded by actor-turned-politician and former chief minister MG Ramachandran — it was a splinter of the DMK after a fissure developed between MGR and M Karunanidhi, who first became CM on February 10, 1969.
After MGR died in 1987, the mantle of party supremo went to his protege J Jayalalithaa, who would occupy the CM's state five times, with her first term commencing on 24 June 1991.
It is important to note that since Karunanidhi became CM for the second time in June 1989, until his passing in 2018, elections in Tamil Nadu came down to a choice between himself and Jayalalithaa, with each occupying the chair in successive terms, with the odd interruption of President's Rule.
While a DMK chief minister always meant Karunanidhi, only twice did AIADMK have a chief minister other than Jayalalithaa —O Paneerselvam (OPS), who took the oath of office in September 2001 when Jayalalithaa was barred from holding office by the Supreme Court over corrupto=ion allegations, and then again in May 2014 when she was convicted in a disproportionate assets case. Regardless, there was no question about who truly ran the government during these brief stints.
End of status quo
Tamil Nadu saw its first period of uncertainty when Jayalalithaa passed away on December 5, 2016, paving the way for a third, short-lived turn by OPS as chief minister. Around this time, AIADMK split into two factions — one led by OPS and the other by Edappadi K Palaniswani (EPS).
Karunanidhi too was ailing, with his son MK Stalin handling al party-related matters. Karunanidhi passed away in 2018.
The EPS faction won the day and expelled OPS from the party in 2022. EPS became the seventh chief minister of Tamil Nadu after joining the National Democratic Alliance and completed four years in office before DMK defeated them in the assembly elections, with the incumbent, Stalin taking the oath of office.
The 2019 Lok Sabha Elections
This marked the turning point for DMK. The elections for Tamil Nadu’s 39 Lok Sabha seats were held on April 18, 2019, during the second phase The alliance led by DMK swept 38 of the 39 seats.
Factors that led to DMK's victory
The DMK, under the leadership of Stalin, spearheaded the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA). This alliance included parties like the Indian National Congress (INC), Communist Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India, and others.
Meanwhile, the ruling AIADMK faced challenges due to factors such as demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation, which impacted the state’s economy. Many perceived the AIADMK-led state government as being influenced by the central government.
The DMK effectively capitalised on these grievances, positioning itself as a viable alternative. The absence of towering leaders like Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa further contributed to the political flux.
First Published: Mar 13, 2024 7:30 PM IST
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