When the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) stormed to power for the second time in 2019 with an overwhelming majority of 353 seats against the required 272, the credit went to a 'Modi Wave'.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which won 282 seats on its own in 2014 with a 31.04% share of the votes, improved on this number, taking it to 303 seats with a vote share of 37.41% in 2019.
When campaigning for the 2024 elections began, this same 'Modi Wave' was expected to be the pull factor to better the 2019 tally, which is why the BJP positioned its campaign around the Modi guarantee.
But the Modi magic didn’t work as it did previously. The Prime Minister held rallies in 184 of the 543 seats ahead of, and during, the Lok Sabha Election 2024. In all, he addressed crowds through 206 rallies and roadshows, higher than the 142 public events in 2019. But of these 184 seats, the NDA won just 99. That’s a strike rate of a little above 53%.
Thirty-five of these 184 seats, which were in the NDA’s kitty, have gone elsewhere. The INDI Alliance has won 82 of these 184 seats, adding 54 seats to its 2019 tally.
Elections 2024 and the Modi factor
In some states, he has still been highly effective.
His rallies in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand have translated into victories for the NDA – the seats he campaigned in have almost unerringly voted saffron. But in states like West Bengal, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Maharashtra, his magic does not seem to have been as potent.
Tamil Nadu, a state which was a special focus area for him, has not been charmed. Modi has visited the state at least 10 times this year alone. However, the BJP has again failed to get a foothold in that elusive southern state. Kerala tells a similar story. While the BJP won one seat in the state (Thrissur), it was not a constituency he held a rally at. The BJP believes the PM's strategy for the south will pay off in the long term.
In Uttar Pradesh, forget a wave, the result has been a washout for the BJP. The INDI Alliance has bagged 44 of the 80 seats the state has to offer, adding an impressive 38 seats to last election’s tally. Meanwhile, NDA lost its hold on 29 seats, winning just 35.
These include some key seats. For instance, the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, which was seen by many (including the BJP itself) as one of the pillars of its election campaign and a sure-shot vote magnet, has not yielded the desired results: BJP has not managed to win even the Faizabad constituency, in which Ayodhya lies.
Varanasi, the seat Modi contested, has also seen a decline in the winning margin. Modi won by over 1.52 lakh votes and a 54.2% vote share, a distance away from the margin of about 4.79 lakh votes (63.62%) he managed in 2019.
A lot of this swing can probably be attributed to fatigue after 10 years of BJP rule. After all, anti-incumbency is very real in politics, and a decade is ample time for it to grow roots.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which won 282 seats on its own in 2014 with a 31.04% share of the votes, improved on this number, taking it to 303 seats with a vote share of 37.41% in 2019.
When campaigning for the 2024 elections began, this same 'Modi Wave' was expected to be the pull factor to better the 2019 tally, which is why the BJP positioned its campaign around the Modi guarantee.
But the Modi magic didn’t work as it did previously. The Prime Minister held rallies in 184 of the 543 seats ahead of, and during, the Lok Sabha Election 2024. In all, he addressed crowds through 206 rallies and roadshows, higher than the 142 public events in 2019. But of these 184 seats, the NDA won just 99. That’s a strike rate of a little above 53%.
Thirty-five of these 184 seats, which were in the NDA’s kitty, have gone elsewhere. The INDI Alliance has won 82 of these 184 seats, adding 54 seats to its 2019 tally.
Elections 2024 and the Modi factor
| The Rally Trail | 184/543 Seats |
| BJP | 90 |
| Congress | 34 |
| TMC | 14 |
| SP | 13 |
| DMK | 6 |
| SHSUBT | 5 |
| NCPSP | 3 |
| Rest | 19 |
In some states, he has still been highly effective.
His rallies in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand have translated into victories for the NDA – the seats he campaigned in have almost unerringly voted saffron. But in states like West Bengal, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Maharashtra, his magic does not seem to have been as potent.
Tamil Nadu, a state which was a special focus area for him, has not been charmed. Modi has visited the state at least 10 times this year alone. However, the BJP has again failed to get a foothold in that elusive southern state. Kerala tells a similar story. While the BJP won one seat in the state (Thrissur), it was not a constituency he held a rally at. The BJP believes the PM's strategy for the south will pay off in the long term.
In Uttar Pradesh, forget a wave, the result has been a washout for the BJP. The INDI Alliance has bagged 44 of the 80 seats the state has to offer, adding an impressive 38 seats to last election’s tally. Meanwhile, NDA lost its hold on 29 seats, winning just 35.
These include some key seats. For instance, the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, which was seen by many (including the BJP itself) as one of the pillars of its election campaign and a sure-shot vote magnet, has not yielded the desired results: BJP has not managed to win even the Faizabad constituency, in which Ayodhya lies.
Varanasi, the seat Modi contested, has also seen a decline in the winning margin. Modi won by over 1.52 lakh votes and a 54.2% vote share, a distance away from the margin of about 4.79 lakh votes (63.62%) he managed in 2019.
| LS Polls: Varanasi Trend | ||
| Year | Vote Margin | Vote % |
| 2019 | 4,79,505 | 63.62 |
| 2024 | 1,52,513 | 54.24 |
| Source: ECI | ||
A lot of this swing can probably be attributed to fatigue after 10 years of BJP rule. After all, anti-incumbency is very real in politics, and a decade is ample time for it to grow roots.
First Published: Jun 6, 2024 1:28 PM IST
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