2024 Lok Sabha Elections | Why Phase-7 is most crucial for BJP
While the BJP aims to strengthen its position in the states, including UP, Bihar, Punjab, West Bengal and the Union Territories, covering 57 seats in the Phase-7 elections, a combination of internal challenges and strong opposition suggests that significant gains are unlikely, observes Political Columnist Prof. Sayantan Ghosh.
As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections draw to a close, all eyes are on the final and the seventh phase of voting. This phase, often referred to as 'The Last Mile,' could potentially make or break the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) election bid. This phase of the election, which covers 57 seats spread over eight states and Union Territories, is set to go to the polls today (June 1).
In the 2019 elections, the BJP won just 25 of these 57 seats, less than 50%. This phase, therefore, presents a significant challenge for the party. The BJP's performance in this phase is crucial for several reasons. Firstly, it is a test of the party's ability to maintain its winning streak in the Hindi heartland states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Himachal Pradesh. Secondly, it is an opportunity for the party to gain seats in Bengal and Odisha to compensate for anticipated losses in states it had maxed out in 2019.
The stakes are high not just for the BJP, but also for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc. While the NDA is aiming to beat their 2019 tally of 353 seats, the INDIA alliance is hoping to keep the BJP under the 272 mark. In conclusion, the last mile of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is not just a battle for seats, but a battle for narratives, influence, and the future direction of the country. As the electorate casts their vote in this final phase, the outcome could indeed make or break the BJP's election bid.
Uttar Pradesh — The Centre Of Attention
As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections enter their final phase, Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, becomes the centre of attention. Going to vote today, the Phase 7 covers several key constituencies, and the outcome here will be critical for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
In the 2019 elections, the BJP dominated Uttar Pradesh, winning 62 of the 80 seats. In Phase 7 alone, which included 13 seats, the BJP secured 11. However, this was during a period of high popularity and a fragmented opposition.
The political landscape has changed since then. The BJP faces significant challenges, including anti-incumbency after nearly a decade in power. The Yogi Adityanath government's mixed record on law and order, economic development, and pandemic response has affected voter sentiment.
Moreover, the opposition, particularly the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress, appears more unified, potentially posing a greater challenge to the BJP. The complex social dynamics of Uttar Pradesh, influenced by caste and communal factors, add another layer of complexity to the election. The Bahujan Samaj Party is not a dominant problem for the BJP, but a subtle one for sure. It is not very clear what Mayawati really wants. But whatever happens, a section of Dalits, particularly Jatavs, will vote for the BSP in any circumstance.
Key constituencies in this phase include Varanasi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s seat, and Gorakhpur, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s stronghold. Varanasi remains a BJP bastion, with the campaign focusing on development projects. Gorakhpur will test the BJP's rural outreach and governance model. Constituencies like Ghazipur and Ballia, where the BJP won narrowly in 2019, represent potential vulnerabilities.
The BJP’s prospects depend on voter turnout, effective campaign strategies, and the opposition's ability to consolidate votes. Higher voter turnout often signals a shift, which could benefit the opposition. The BJP must leverage its national leadership and local achievements to counter anti-incumbency and maintain support.
This Phase of election in Uttar Pradesh is a decisive moment for the BJP. The party's performance here will be pivotal in determining its overall success and its ability to retain a commanding position in the Lok Sabha.
Bihar — BJP Is Dependent Heavily On Nitish
In the seventh phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, the political landscape is marked by strategic moves and shifting alliances. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, once a formidable figure within the opposition, is now navigating a landscape aimed at reaffirming his loyalty to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). His return is seen as a potential boost for the alliance, with the BJP expecting better vote conversion and increased winnability with Nitish Kumar's JD(U) on board.
However, public scepticism clouds these strategic moves. Nitish Kumar's history of shifting alliances and statements has led to doubts about his political credibility. While the BJP sees strategic value in his return, the electorate remains cautious, remembering past promises that were quickly forgotten.
The seventh phase, slated for June 1, covers key constituencies including Nalanda, Patna Sahib, Pataliputra, Arrah, Buxar, Sasaram, Karakat, and Jahanabad. The outcomes in these areas will be crucial in determining Bihar's representation in the Indian Parliament. In conclusion, while Nitish Kumar's return to the NDA is expected to bolster the alliance’s prospects, the public's scepticism about his reliability could significantly influence the election results.
Odisha — Better Chance For A Gain
In the seventh phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Odisha, the political landscape is marked by an intensifying tussle between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD). The BJP is poised for significant gains against Naveen Patnaik's long-dominant BJD. The state, under BJD rule for 25 years, is showing signs of political change. The BJP's vote share in Odisha has grown from 22% in 2014 to 38% in 2019, indicating a strong upward trajectory.
Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan has expressed confidence that the BJP will secure 45% of the votes in Odisha in the 2024 general elections and win at least 15 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats. However, the BJD's extensive ground network remains a formidable challenge. Despite the BJP's growing influence, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik is confident of securing his sixth consecutive term, relying on his established voter base and development record.
The BJD faces a three-way contest with the BJP and the Congress-led INDIA bloc in this election. The BJP’s increasing popularity might lead to its best performance yet in Odisha, but the entrenched support for the BJD and Patnaik’s enduring appeal could significantly impact the final results.
In conclusion, while the BJP is expected to make substantial gains in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in Odisha, the BJD’s strong grassroots presence and the influence of Naveen Patnaik will be crucial factors in determining the outcome.
Bengal and Punjab —An Uphill Battle
The BJP's prospects in Bengal and Punjab appear grim in this Phase of elections. The party, which made significant inroads in West Bengal in 2019 by securing 18 seats, is now struggling to maintain its foothold. Internal discord and defections to the Trinamool Congress (TMC) have weakened its position. Despite ambitious targets of winning at least 25 seats, the BJP's recent performance in state assembly elections, where many of its elected MLAs have switched sides, indicates a declining influence.
In Punjab, the situation is similarly challenging for the BJP. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which won the state assembly elections in 2022 with a substantial majority, has fortified its presence. The BJP's reliance on former Congress leaders switching allegiances has not translated into substantial grassroots support. The party's diminished influence in Punjab is further complicated by the strong anti-incumbency sentiment against its central leadership and the farm laws debacle that severely impacted its rural voter base. The seventh phase will be a critical test for the BJP as it attempts to recover lost ground in these two crucial states. In West Bengal, the party's internal strife and defections have demoralised its base, making it difficult to replicate the 2019 success. Meanwhile, in Punjab, the BJP faces a resilient AAP and a sceptical electorate still reeling from recent agricultural reforms.
In conclusion, while the BJP aims to strengthen its position in these states, the combination of internal challenges and strong opposition suggests that significant gains are unlikely in the upcoming elections. The outcomes in Bengal and Punjab will likely underscore the difficulties the BJP faces in regions where it lacks deep-rooted support and faces formidable local opponents.
