2024 Lok Sabha Election verdict | What do the early leads indicate
The initial trends and the numbers at about 12 noon indicated that the people decided the need for a stronger opposition in the 18th Lok Sabha, observes Political Columnist K V Prasad.
By KV Prasad June 4, 2024, 1:12:00 PM IST (Updated)
The voter is proving to be the script writer. Notwithstanding, the denouement by pollsters on Saturday, as the Electronic Voting Machines began spouting out the results, gave a ray of hope to the Opposition.
Unlike the grand claims made by different Exit Poll surveys, the opposition I.N.D.I A platform recorded early gains across several Lok Sabha constituencies even as the governing coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party continued to race pace.
Ahead of the actual vote counting that commenced at 0800 hours today (Tuesday) morning, the combined opposition asked its workers to remain on the vigil.
The apprehension revolved around the possible machinations that could create doubts in the integrity of the process.
Yet, as the day progressed the EVMs began to print results with which neither the governing coalition nor the combined opposition could complain about. The 642 million voters offered a clear verdict in exercising their choice.
The initial trends and the numbers at about 12 noon indicated that the people decided the need for a stronger opposition in the 18th Lok Sabha.
While the broad trend of the past two general elections and the return to single-party domination remained on course, the comfort margin appears diluted for the BJP.
Just as ground reports during the seven-phase indicated, the incumbent government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on the verge of making history navigating choppy waters.
Focus of the BJP was to secure an outright win under Narendra Modi leadership. This will bring him at par with Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru who won three straight elections between 1952 and 1962
It is early to predict which way will these trends consolidate. Principal parties on either side, the BJP and Congress are experiencing swings. The BJP figures suggest that if these trends convert into seats, the party will be not near its 2019 share of 303 seats. At present, the BJP has one confirmed victory from Gujarat, which was won without any contest.
On the other hand there is more than a flicker of hope in the Grand Old Party that it can win more than 50-odd seats it has in the outgoing Lok Sabha.
Interestingly, Uttar Pradesh, a state which elects maximum 80 MPs, appears to be the catalyst of change. The voters seem to have spoken differently favouring the Samajwadi Party-Congress combine. At this point, the BJP vote share is about 42% which is being equalled by SP-Congress.
BJP which won 60 plus seats in 2019 is hemmed by SP-Congress. Bahujan Samaj Party which had fair share of votes appears to be reduced to single digit.
The biggest seat back to BJP, if one goes by pollster prediction, is in West Bengal. The Trinamool Congress under Mamata Banerjee is not concerning space to the BJP.
While the road ahead is still long, there is light ahead for the opposition to emerge stronger from the tunnel.
