NDA government 3.0 — these are the key challenges ahead
The great Indian electoral race ended on June 4, and the people have spoken. Now it is time for the new government to prepare to hit the road running. Will the NDA-3.0 under PM Modi have the comfort to work on policies unhindered or will the compulsions of coalition come into play? — Political observer and columnist KV Prasad tries to answer this big question in his exclusive column.
By KV Prasad June 5, 2024, 2:55:09 PM IST (Updated)
The verdict of 642 million voters of India delivered a strong message to the political class across — the country needs a stable government and equally necessary to have a sturdy opposition in Parliament.
After a decade of governance, the electorate granted Prime Minister Narendra Modi the distinction of being the second leader after Jawaharlal Nehru to retain the reins for a third straight term, albeit with a rider.
At the start of a third term in office, PM Modi will begin firm with the knowledge that the Bharatiya Janata Party can no longer take comfort in numerical superiority in the Lok Sabha. The party will need the oars from two pre-poll regional partners, the Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam Party for the ship to sail forward.
These two regional satraps who together have 28 MPs are well-versed in the art of negotiations and working with dominant parties at the Centre. More importantly, Both Nitish Kumar and Naidu know how vulnerable parties with lesser strength are to machinations in coalition arrangements.
With support for others including Lok Janshakti (Ram Vilas Paswan), and single party representatives, this time the BJP-led NDA government would have to deal with allies with greater respect. In the last five years, two of the oldest and staunchest allies – the undivided Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) left the NDA.
Challenges In The Days Ahead
Even before beginning his third tenure, PM Modi outlined priorities before the new government under preparation in the form of a 100-day plan and articulated some thoughts in his speech at the BJP headquarters on Wednesday evening. Yet, there are a few nagging doubts over the possible direction of the government before it hits the road running.
These can be classified in three categories — the socio-political domain, economic policies trajectory and sharpening the contours of international engagement.
One of the messages that the voters underscored in the general elections was the unease over accepting a brand of socio-political discourse that ‘othered’ a minority community. This was more pronounced in the crucible of Hindi-heartland politics — Uttar Pradesh. The state, which is credited to be the route to the most prestigious political office on the Raisina Hill, can still claim the status with PM Modi as the representative from Varanasi. Yet, the manner in which the electorate decided to grant more seats to the Samajwadi Party and its allies, carried a silent missive.
The presence of Nitish Kumar, a product of social engineering and Mandal-era politics in the current scheme of the next government can have a sobering effect. For all the talk of this seasoned politician from Bihar losing his grip and frequent U-turns made during the last 15 years, Nitish Kumar demonstrated his political capital is formidable in of the most politically-active states.
Overhang Over Economic Agenda
Will the change of composition and return of the BJP with lesser strength affect the required thrust behind economic reforms? This became an issue of concern that found reflection in the way stock markets behaved on June 4. However, it will be prudent to recall that even in 2004 when the Vajpayee government was voted out, there was a massive meltdown in markets only to pick up in subsequent days.
In 1996 when the government of PM Narasimha Rao, who under Finance Minister Manmohan Singh put the economy on the path of reforms in the face of strident opposition, doubts persisted on India staying the course. The doubting Thomases got the answer soon.
In fact between 1991 and 2014, when the country had coalition arrangements, every government pushed the country on the path of further reforms. There is no reason to revisit the process for NDA 3.0 under PM Modi. The only difference would be that the government would have to negotiate with allies and voices within on certain hot-button decisions in the making. It would not have the advantage of sheer numbers to simply push the envelope.
In this journey, PM Modi will benefit from Chandrababu Naidu. The TDP Chief retains the image of the builder of a modern undivided Andhra Pradesh and creating Cyberabad. He once fashioned himself as the CEO of the state, until an electoral setback in 2004. Naidu is a steadfast believer in reforms and the need to accelerate the journey.
International Outreach
One of the hallmarks of the decade-long Modi government is the success in creating a perception of India having arrived on the world stage. The projection and pursuit of muscular diplomacy; interplay of Vishwa Guru and Vishwa Bandhu status; and India working on a plan to press for a seat on the high-table in international order would remain undiminished. Of course, it would require greater dexterity in adapting to the ever-altering landscape in an increasingly complex world.
Overall, there would be no major departure from the policies pursued by the government during the last decade except that it may have to recalibrate its accent on speed, scale and spread as voices questioning the pursuit emerge stronger both within and outside.
