HomeWorld NewsTrump’s Convictions | Will this affect his presidential race — a geopolitical expert's views

Trump’s Convictions | Will this affect his presidential race — a geopolitical expert's views

With federal cases in Florida and Washington, and an election-tampering case brought by a state prosecutor in Georgia still to come, legal problems continue for the former US President Donald Trump. But can these complicate his run for office of the President in the November election? Prof. Dr Vijayalakshmi, an expert in geopolitics and international relations, explains this in an exclusive column.

By Prof. Dr. Vijayalakshmi K P  June 11, 2024, 11:01:50 AM IST (Updated)
This is an election season almost globally. From India to UK, Mexico, Europe and USA it’s raining candidates and voters are getting ready to make their choices. The US Presidential elections slated for November has garnered attention for some unusual reasons; for the first time, one candidate from the Republican party (who was a former president and their presumptive nominee this election) — Donald Trump has been convicted on 34 counts in in a case relating to “hush money” that he paid to a porn star, Stormy Daniels, in 2016, in New York.

Called a type E felony, the judgement was somber reminder that the US political landscape is deeply polarised and can accelerate a spiral of persistent partisan retaliation. With federal cases in Florida and Washington, and an election-tampering case brought by a state prosecutor in Georgia still to come, legal problems continue for the former president. Can it complicate his run for office of the President of the US?

As the American constitution simply requires a candidate to be a natural born citizen, be at least 35 years old, and be a U.S. resident for at least 14 years, he can remain on the ballot and indeed can govern even from behind the bars.

History too reminds Americans that Eugene Debs, the socialist candidate in 1920, famously won a million votes in an election from behind the bars. Therefore, the almost certain appeal by Trump’s lawyers along with his wealth and status could well protect him from the consequences of these convictions.

For instance, his right to vote in Florida is protected as “an individual wasn’t convicted in Florida, the state defers to the law in the state where the individual was convicted. New York allows non-incarcerated felons to vote. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has already said he would allow Trump to vote”.

What then would the sentencing look like?

Most likely some sort of probation that could have an impact on his ability to campaign as it may involve travel restrictions.  At this stage, much of that is yet to be announced till July 11, and will be influenced by several factors. 

That apart, how does it impact public opinion? According to a survey by Morning consult poll, “just 15% of Republican voters nationwide now want Trump to drop his election bid” while there was no change with the independents who were split pretty evenly between Biden and Trump earlier.

“Even before the case, a poll conducted by PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist had found that for every two out of three registered voters, a guilty verdict would have no bearing on how many would decide to vote come November — and that included independents”. Democratic supporters of  Biden would probably like a more robust response to the judgement, but apparently Biden's “reelection campaign has told them that Trump can only be beaten at the ballot box, and has asked supporters for money, pointing out that Trump's campaign said he raised $52.8 million after the jury verdict”. 

Clearly, the verdict has unified the various factions of the Republican party as GOP officials and its voters have rallied behind the former President.  Republican sentiment was that  “Unfortunately for Democrats, their rigged political operation has backfired in a historic way, and Republicans are in a stronger position than ever to fire Crooked Joe Biden and Make America Great Again by electing President Trump on November 5,” as stated by the  RNC Chairman Michael Whatley and Co-Chairman Lara Trump.  

Meanwhile, reports of a jury being sworn in after 4 days of Trump’s conviction for the trial of Hunter Biden on gun charges, starting “a historic criminal prosecution of a sitting president's son with the potential to influence the 2024 presidential election” would be a dampener for the current President.

The current state of affairs in the US where in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in May 7-14 showed “Trump and Biden tied with 40% support each”.  What is worrying for Biden is the “low marks from younger Black, Latino and Asian American voters who overwhelmingly supported him four years ago, according to the University of Chicago’s latest GenForward survey”. 

The decline in support for Biden from 2020 when “89% of Black voters aged 18-29 and 78% of those aged 30-44 voted for Biden whereas just 33% said they would support him if the election were held today, with 23% choosing Donald Trump. When it comes to young Latino voters, Trump is beating the President by a four-point margin — a significant reversal from 2020, when Biden won 69% of Latino voters under 30”.

Then there are issues that will eventually make a difference such as the heavy turnouts expected from a re-energised Republican base. In addition, the Vice-Presidential pick may also work for Trump which seems to be in the state of Florida. In effect, elections are ultimately decided by perceptions of people that in this election rests on issues of age, political witch-hunting, institutional fair play, faith in the judicial process, economy, immigration and US foreign policy. Trump convictions in Manhattan has added a twist to this mix.



— The author,  Prof. Dr. K P Vijayalakshmi, is Head of Department, Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of Higher Education. The views expressed are personal.