In the past month, a flurry of diplomatic activity in the Middle East and the United States has hinted at the potential for improved relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) has indicated that Saudi Arabia is progressively warming up to Israel. Israel's Minister of Communications, Sholmo Karhi, visited Riyadh to participate in an international conference, and Saudi Ambassador to Palestine, Nayef bin Bandar al-Sudairi, made a historic visit to Ramallah to reiterate Saudi Arabia's commitment to a Palestinian state.
This was the first visit of its kind since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and sent a positive signal to the Palestinians. In response, President Mahmoud Abbas offered to cede some West Bank territories in exchange for Israel's acceptance of a two-state solution. Saudi Arabia pledged substantial financial support for rebuilding their infrastructure to encourage Palestinians to resolve their disputes with Israel. On the surface, it appears that a long-term solution to the enduring Arab-Israeli conflict is within reach. However, the actual situation is far more complex.
Also Read: Israel-Hamas war Highlights | Gaza has only 24 hours of fuel, electricity and water left: WHO
At the United Nations General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented a map of the Middle East that omitted Palestine, blatantly disregarding UN Security Council resolutions and the international community's commitment, including that of the United States, to a two-state solution for the Palestinian issue.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is requesting an extensive array of advanced military equipment from the US, NATO-like security guarantees, and the establishment of a civil nuclear plant for uranium enrichment, citing Iran as a precedent. The Saudis are less interested in the benefits of the Abraham Accords, which are essentially pragmatic business agreements with Israel and have limited impact on the Palestinian situation.
Most mainstream Arab countries have aligned their Palestinian policies with US and EU norms. All of Saudi Arabia's demands are aimed at deterring potential Iranian aggression. Given the Saudi-Iran rivalry, they are unwilling to establish close relations with Israel without first addressing Iran's nuclear capabilities. Moreover, they insist that the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel is contingent on the creation of an independent Palestinian homeland, which is a prerequisite for Arab public opinion.
Also Read: US held secret talks with Iran, expressed concern over Israel-Hamas war: US NSA Jake Sullivan
The Biden administration, since the beginning of its presidency, has kept Middle East conflicts at arm's length, acknowledging limited attention to the issue. The European Union and the international community have largely maintained the status quo, neglecting the fact that Palestinians bear the brunt of Israeli settlements and oppression in occupied areas.
Despite the Oslo Accord being signed over three decades ago, there is still no resolution in sight. It is the younger generation of Palestinians, growing up in the post-Oslo era, who have taken charge. They feel that the elder leadership has failed to alleviate their suffering at the hands of Israeli settlers. This sentiment intensified following the killing of 200 Palestinian refugees, including 38 children, in the Jenin and Nablus refugee camps this year, with continued expansion of settlements in the West Bank.
The United Nations and the West have failed politically and morally by only expressing concern without taking substantial action. The 2.3 million Palestinians living in a small, densely populated area continue to endure both periodic violent attacks and silent violence, with little progress toward peace.
The Palestinians have come to realise that President Abbas, who is unpopular among Palestinians, is unlikely to control the militants as demanded by the US and Israel for the establishment of a Palestinian homeland. Similarly, the Israeli Prime Minister cannot sell a "land-for-peace" deal to his ultra-rightist coalition partners, who favour expanding Israeli settlements.
The first intifada and the second intifada were pivotal in forcing the US and Israel to recognise and engage directly with the PLO, as well as endorsing a two-state solution, respectively. In the current circumstances, the Palestinian youth have few alternatives but to take proactive action to gain justice. They believe the time is ripe for innovative strategies to bring their cause to the forefront of Middle East policy.
Iran has closely observed the Palestinians' suffering, and Hamas has received financial support, weapons, and training from Iran for years. Iran has armed Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon, with advanced weaponry, including precision-guided missiles. Iran's missile and drone capabilities are expanding, and they are poised to benefit from the JCPOA sanctions relief on missile and drone technology trade.
This puts Iran in a favourable position in the region. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are alarmed by the recent developments involving Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the US, as the proposed Saudi-Israel rapprochement threatens to sideline them. Iran has faced economic hardship and sanctions since the West withdrew from the JCPOA, but they have normalised relations with Saudi Arabia without forsaking their assets in the region.
Iran has championed the Palestinian cause since the 1979 Islamic Revolution to gain acceptance within the Muslim world. In the event of a flare-up in the Palestine-Israel conflict, Israel could potentially find itself in a multi-front conflict involving Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and potentially Iran, drawing in other countries in the region. The current situation has cast a negative light on the prospects for Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the US in achieving a rapprochement, and the most viable path to such an arrangement may involve Iran and a resolution to the Palestinian issue.
—The author, Amb. Soumen Ray, is an IFS and former Indian Ambassador & High Commissioner to the Gulf, West Asia, and Eastern & Southern African countries. The views expressed are personal.
This was the first visit of its kind since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and sent a positive signal to the Palestinians. In response, President Mahmoud Abbas offered to cede some West Bank territories in exchange for Israel's acceptance of a two-state solution. Saudi Arabia pledged substantial financial support for rebuilding their infrastructure to encourage Palestinians to resolve their disputes with Israel. On the surface, it appears that a long-term solution to the enduring Arab-Israeli conflict is within reach. However, the actual situation is far more complex.
Also Read: Israel-Hamas war Highlights | Gaza has only 24 hours of fuel, electricity and water left: WHO
At the United Nations General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented a map of the Middle East that omitted Palestine, blatantly disregarding UN Security Council resolutions and the international community's commitment, including that of the United States, to a two-state solution for the Palestinian issue.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is requesting an extensive array of advanced military equipment from the US, NATO-like security guarantees, and the establishment of a civil nuclear plant for uranium enrichment, citing Iran as a precedent. The Saudis are less interested in the benefits of the Abraham Accords, which are essentially pragmatic business agreements with Israel and have limited impact on the Palestinian situation.
Most mainstream Arab countries have aligned their Palestinian policies with US and EU norms. All of Saudi Arabia's demands are aimed at deterring potential Iranian aggression. Given the Saudi-Iran rivalry, they are unwilling to establish close relations with Israel without first addressing Iran's nuclear capabilities. Moreover, they insist that the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel is contingent on the creation of an independent Palestinian homeland, which is a prerequisite for Arab public opinion.
Also Read: US held secret talks with Iran, expressed concern over Israel-Hamas war: US NSA Jake Sullivan
The Biden administration, since the beginning of its presidency, has kept Middle East conflicts at arm's length, acknowledging limited attention to the issue. The European Union and the international community have largely maintained the status quo, neglecting the fact that Palestinians bear the brunt of Israeli settlements and oppression in occupied areas.
Despite the Oslo Accord being signed over three decades ago, there is still no resolution in sight. It is the younger generation of Palestinians, growing up in the post-Oslo era, who have taken charge. They feel that the elder leadership has failed to alleviate their suffering at the hands of Israeli settlers. This sentiment intensified following the killing of 200 Palestinian refugees, including 38 children, in the Jenin and Nablus refugee camps this year, with continued expansion of settlements in the West Bank.
The United Nations and the West have failed politically and morally by only expressing concern without taking substantial action. The 2.3 million Palestinians living in a small, densely populated area continue to endure both periodic violent attacks and silent violence, with little progress toward peace.
The Palestinians have come to realise that President Abbas, who is unpopular among Palestinians, is unlikely to control the militants as demanded by the US and Israel for the establishment of a Palestinian homeland. Similarly, the Israeli Prime Minister cannot sell a "land-for-peace" deal to his ultra-rightist coalition partners, who favour expanding Israeli settlements.
The first intifada and the second intifada were pivotal in forcing the US and Israel to recognise and engage directly with the PLO, as well as endorsing a two-state solution, respectively. In the current circumstances, the Palestinian youth have few alternatives but to take proactive action to gain justice. They believe the time is ripe for innovative strategies to bring their cause to the forefront of Middle East policy.
Iran has closely observed the Palestinians' suffering, and Hamas has received financial support, weapons, and training from Iran for years. Iran has armed Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon, with advanced weaponry, including precision-guided missiles. Iran's missile and drone capabilities are expanding, and they are poised to benefit from the JCPOA sanctions relief on missile and drone technology trade.
This puts Iran in a favourable position in the region. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are alarmed by the recent developments involving Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the US, as the proposed Saudi-Israel rapprochement threatens to sideline them. Iran has faced economic hardship and sanctions since the West withdrew from the JCPOA, but they have normalised relations with Saudi Arabia without forsaking their assets in the region.
Iran has championed the Palestinian cause since the 1979 Islamic Revolution to gain acceptance within the Muslim world. In the event of a flare-up in the Palestine-Israel conflict, Israel could potentially find itself in a multi-front conflict involving Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and potentially Iran, drawing in other countries in the region. The current situation has cast a negative light on the prospects for Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the US in achieving a rapprochement, and the most viable path to such an arrangement may involve Iran and a resolution to the Palestinian issue.
—The author, Amb. Soumen Ray, is an IFS and former Indian Ambassador & High Commissioner to the Gulf, West Asia, and Eastern & Southern African countries. The views expressed are personal.
First Published: Oct 17, 2023 9:54 AM IST
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